Iowa: Edwards leads, Richardson surges

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Sunday May 20, 2007 · 7:08 AM PDT

2007/05/20 · 07:08

Didnt see any diary about the horserace numbers, so here is the latest Des Moines Register poll of likely democratic caucus goers:

Edwards 29%
Obama 23%
Clinton 21%
Richardson 10%
Biden 3%
Kucinich 2%
Gravel 1%
Dodd -
Not sure 11%

Link

What to make of it? I think Edwards is still comfortably ahead among LIKELY caucus participants and clearly Richardsons strategy to run TV ads early has´paid off and he is now moving up rapidly.

Poll

217 votes Show Results

How likely do you think it is, that Bill Richardson will move into the first tier of candidates during the 2008 presidential primary?

217 votes Vote Now!

How likely do you think it is, that Bill Richardson will move into the first tier of candidates during the 2008 presidential primary?

Very likely

38 votes

Somewhat likely

60 votes

Rather unlikely

59 votes

Very unlikely

57 votes

Don't know

3 votes

Latest Rasmussen Poll: Obama and Clinton tied, Edwards moves up too

MarcTGFG

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Monday April 23, 2007 · 6:32 AM PDT

2007/04/23 · 06:32

As predicted by Kos, Chris Bowers and others, the weekly Rasmussen Poll of the Democratic Primary is the first to show Hillary loosing her lead, with Obama and her tied at 32 % each and Edwards at 17 %.

MarcTGFG

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Sunday February 25, 2007 · 6:49 PM PST

2007/02/25 · 18:49

Gore just went on stage at the Oscar ceremony with Leonardo DiCaprio and starts a (fake) formal announcement. Leo asks him repeatedly, whether he he really really doesnt want to make a major announcement. Gore finally gives in, takes out his prepared remarks but gets cut off by the official (you went on too long music).

Of course it was just a joke, but Gore came across as genuine and humorous. And when Leo said that he is thankful for standing with Gore, a "true and inspirational leader" Gore looks as if he is really moved by his words.

Perfect show.

MarcTGFG

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Friday February 02, 2007 · 10:20 AM PST

2007/02/02 · 10:20

I just spent the last couple of hours watching C-SPANs streamed coverage of the DNC Winter meeting with speeches by all the major presidential candidates. I missed Dodds speech though and the first minute of Obama.

My first observation: No one adressed the looming war with Iran. Big disappointment!

Now my first take on each speech:

Poll

221 votes Show Results

Who made the best impression at the DNC winter meeting?

221 votes Vote Now!

Who made the best impression at the DNC winter meeting?

Dodd

0 votes

Obama

10 votes

Clark

22 votes

Edwards

164 votes

Kucinich

9 votes

Clinton

13 votes

Dean

1 vote

the audience

2 votes

ARG Primary Polls: Hillary in front everywhere

MarcTGFG

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Thursday December 28, 2006 · 2:15 PM PST

2006/12/28 · 14:15

The American research Group has just published the results of its latest round of democratic and republican primary polls. The numbers out of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina show Hillary R. Clinton comfortably leading all other contenders painting a very different picture of the state of the race than competing polls from Research2000 and other polling outfits.

Poll

98 votes Show Results

Is Hillary Clinton the clear front runner right now?

98 votes Vote Now!

Is Hillary Clinton the clear front runner right now?

Yes

26 votes

58 votes

Don't know

14 votes

CNN Poll: Al Gore leads McCain, Romney, tied with Guiliani

MarcTGFG

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Tuesday December 19, 2006 · 11:16 PM PST

2006/12/19 · 23:16

The new CNN poll shows former vice president Al Gore with a statistically insignificant lead of 1% over senator John McCain (47-46%) and a much wider lead of 53-37% over Mitt Romney.

Gore is tied with Rudy Guiliana at 46% each.

In comparison:

Barack Obama - McCain 43 - 47%
Barack Obama - Romney 51 - 35%
Barack Obama - Guiliani 42 - 49%

Clinton - McCain 47 - 47%
Clinton - Romney 57 - 34%
Clinton - Guiliani 48 - 45%

MarcTGFG

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Saturday December 16, 2006 · 8:18 AM PST

2006/12/16 · 08:18

A lot has happened since the first edition of my "2008 sweepstakes":

Evan Bayh dropped out, Dennis Kucinich got in and Obama continued with his media frenzy..

The formula I came up with consists of a big bloc of fluent criteria, that I call the three big Ms: Money, Message and Momentum (which I believe are the dominant factors nowadays, whether you like it or not).

But then there are lots of other things that matter too and which are rather static (except for the advisors): Going with the Alphabet:

A = Advisors (who gets David Axelrod, Michael Whouley, Bill Hillsman?)
B = Baggage (voting record / past scandals / private lifestyle)
C = Charisma (Do Americans want this person to be in their living rooms every week? How big are the crowds he/she is drawing?)
D = Daddy-Factor (Does he/she make Americans feel secure?)
E = Experience (not only in politics!)

I gave all these factors a certain percentage of relevance and ranked the contenders on this scale with only the Top 3 getting any "points" (1 for 3rd place, 2 for 2nd, 3 for 1st). Multiplied with the "relevance factor" I got an absolute number which itself constitutes a certain percentage of the total number, and which projects the likelyhood of that person to become the Democratic nominee for president.

Poll

160 votes Show Results

Who do you think is most likely to become the democratic nominee?

160 votes Vote Now!

Who do you think is most likely to become the democratic nominee?

Barack Obama

24 votes

Hillary R. Clinton

14 votes

John Edwards

36 votes

Wesley Clark

44 votes

Bill Richardson

3 votes

John F. Kerry

11 votes

Joe Biden

5 votes

Tom Vilsack

2 votes

Christopher Dodd

5 votes

Dennis Kucinich

2 votes

Mike Gravel

1 vote

Someone else

13 votes

The 2008 sweepstakes: Handicapping Obama & Co.

MarcTGFG

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Thursday December 07, 2006 · 9:56 AM PST

2006/12/07 · 09:56

I thought about doing my own "cattle call" for quite a while but wanted to have a more objective formula, that would withstand some scrutiny and which forces myself to look at the facts instead of cheering for my own favorite candidate (Wesley Clark).

So I came up with the three big Ms: Money, Message and Momentum which I believe are the dominant factors nowadays, whether you like it or not.

But then there are lots of other things that matter too: Going with the Alphabet:

Poll

98 votes Show Results

Who do you think is most likely to become the democratic nominee?

98 votes Vote Now!

Who do you think is most likely to become the democratic nominee?

Barack Obama

22 votes

Hillary R. Clinton

9 votes

Evan Bayh

3 votes

Wesley Clark

14 votes

John Edwards

27 votes

Tom Vilsack

1 vote

Christopher Dodd

0 votes

John F. Kerry

4 votes

Joseph Biden

2 votes

Mike Gravel

1 vote

Someone else

15 votes

Washington Post Poll: Democrats lead 59% to 31%

MarcTGFG

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Thursday October 26, 2006 · 6:28 AM PDT

2006/10/26 · 06:28

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll soon to be published will show Democrats holding a record 28% lead in the genereic congressional ballot. Democrats would garner 59% of likely voters compared to dismal 31% for Republicans.

Link (german magazine "Der Spiegel") Read More

Newsweek: 51% of Americans support impeachment

MarcTGFG

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Saturday October 21, 2006 · 10:28 AM PDT

2006/10/21 · 10:28

Remember all the pundits laughing at the notion of impeaching president Bush? Remember all the pollsters refusing to even ask that question in their oh so serious polls? Well, a majority now approves of Democratic plans to impeach president George W. Bush. 28% think it should be a high priority, 23% think it should be a lower priority, 44% disapprove of the idea. Wow. Read More

Wes Clark to Joe: Stop demonizing your opponents!

MarcTGFG

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Wednesday August 09, 2006 · 9:42 AM PDT

2006/08/09 · 09:42

Just received an email newsletter from Wesley Clark. As other dem leaders he is endorsing Lamont for the general election. And he is doing it with strong words:

You see, despite what Joe Lieberman believes, invading Iraq and diverting our attention away from Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden is not being strong on national security. Blind allegiance to George W. Bush and his failed "stay the course" strategy is not being strong on national security. And no, Senator Lieberman, no matter how you demonize your opponents, there is no "antisecurity wing" of the Democratic Party.
[...]

MarcTGFG

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Thursday August 11, 2005 · 7:40 AM PDT

2005/08/11 · 07:40

AP reports that PA voters are furious about their lawmakers giving themselves a 16-34% pay rise in a secret midnight session, circumventing a court ruling that doesnt allow lawmakers to profit from such a rise in the same session of parliament.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8898589/ Read More

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Iowa: Edwards leads, Richardson surges

Latest Rasmussen Poll: Obama and Clinton tied, Edwards moves up too

UPDATED: Gore gets Oscar, makes mock formal announcement

My take on the DNC meeting and speeches

ARG Primary Polls: Hillary in front everywhere

CNN Poll: Al Gore leads McCain, Romney, tied with Guiliani

The 2008 Sweepstakes: Post-Bayh-Edition

The 2008 sweepstakes: Handicapping Obama & Co.

Washington Post Poll: Democrats lead 59% to 31%

Newsweek: 51% of Americans support impeachment

Wes Clark to Joe: Stop demonizing your opponents!

PA democrats jump off the cliff